The third quarter of 2025 concluded with Bitcoin achieving a historic high, instilling confidence among investors regarding the potential for further price appreciation in the final quarter of the year.

Closing September approximately 5% higher at around $114,000, Bitcoin defied traditional expectations of seasonal weakness. Historically, September has presented challenges for Bitcoin; however, when it has finished on a positive note, the subsequent fourth quarters have typically yielded significant gains.

Historical data indicates that in 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, favorable September closes were often succeeded by fourth-quarter rallies averaging over 50%.

If these patterns repeat this year, Bitcoin could surpass the $150,000 mark before year-end. Such expectations resonate within the Bitcoin community and would represent another significant upward movement within a year already characterized by new all-time highs. This potential surge would align with the recent April halving event, which enacted a 50% reduction in the asset’s supply—a milestone frequently correlated with subsequent price increases.

Although Bitcoin has remained relatively stable in recent months, essential liquidity indicators suggest a forthcoming breakout. Trends in global M2 growth, stablecoin supply, and gold’s recent rally—observed with a 40-day lag relative to Bitcoin—all point towards upward momentum.

Happy ‘Up’tober 

Today, Bitcoin soared past $118,000 following the U.S. government shutdown at midnight, resulting from Congress’s failure to pass a funding bill. In contrast to Wall Street’s decline, investors gravitated towards safe-haven assets, propelling gold to record highs above $3,900 an ounce.

The government shutdown has immediate implications for federal employees, Social Security beneficiaries, and travelers, while broader market disruptions are anticipated due to the cessation of economic data releases.

Delays in weekly jobless claims, September payroll numbers, and mid-October inflation data may complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy decision-making process.

Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Buy-in

Increased institutional activity contributes to the prevailing bullish sentiment in the market. BlackRock recently transferred over $130 million worth of Bitcoin onto Coinbase, which some market analysts interpret as a potential harbinger of inflows into its investment products.

Historically, Bitcoin has averaged an impressive gain of nearly 58% in the fourth quarter since 2015, outpacing every other quarterly period. The extent to which 2025 adheres to this historical trend will depend on the duration of investors’ risk appetite in the forthcoming months.

Source link