As of now, nearly 19.96 million BTC are in circulation, approaching the capped supply limit of 21 million. Consequently, Bitcoin’s global market capitalization has risen to $1.86 trillion, reflecting a 3% increase over the same timeframe.

Market analysts indicate that the Bitcoin price recently dipped below its Metcalfe-based fair value for the first time since 2023. This adjustment suggests a typical late-cycle reset, occurring amidst a notable 36% decline which had driven the Bitcoin price toward $80,000 last week, effectively erasing excess leverage and liquidating speculative positions.

Network economist Timothy Peterson notes that historical trends demonstrate robust forward returns during periods when Bitcoin trades beneath its fundamental network value. According to CoinDesk reporting, the average gains over a twelve-month period during such times have been 132%, with positive returns documented 96% of the time.

Shifts in the network’s internal metrics have also been observed. Over the past ten days, long-term holders have amassed approximately 50,000 BTC, reversing a trend of gradual distribution.

This transition indicates a maturation of coins from short-term traders to long-term holders, thereby decreasing sell pressure as Bitcoin seeks to retake higher price levels. Bitcoin has regained its position above $90,000 this week, peaking at $93,978 on Wednesday.

Bitcoin Price and Macro Conditions

Current macroeconomic conditions are aligning with on-chain indicators. The Federal Reserve has concluded its period of Quantitative Tightening, with market expectations now heavily favoring a rate cut in December.

Historically, each reversal in QT has coincided with substantial Bitcoin rallies, a trend that can be traced back to 2010 and includes significant cycles such as the 2013 explosion and the post-2019 surge, which ultimately drove the Bitcoin price to $67,000.

Indicators related to the business cycle also appear to be shifting. The copper-to-gold ratio—a leading indicator of U.S. manufacturing sentiment and anticipated PMI strength—seems to be stabilizing.

Recent stagnation in Bitcoin’s growth despite increasing global liquidity implies that investors may be primarily influenced by diminishing economic confidence rather than solely crypto-specific elements. A revival in risk appetite could likely benefit Bitcoin following an extended period of market consolidation.

The short-term outlook remains precarious. A bearish closing in November has confirmed a monthly MACD cross, a signal that frequently precedes extended phases of reduced momentum.

Crucial levels of support are established around $85,000 and $84,000. Analysts caution that a breach of these levels could facilitate a deeper correction toward $75,000.

Although Bitcoin’s price remains significantly lower than its October peak of $126,000, volatility has diminished as liquidations decrease.

Institutional interest continues to expand despite the existing market turbulence. BlackRock has increased its internal exposure to the IBIT ETF, while JPMorgan has introduced a structured note related to this product. Strategy Inc. has expanded its Bitcoin holdings and allocated a $1.4 billion reserve to reassure investors against the need for forced sales.

In a recent announcement, Charles Schwab expressed plans to offer Bitcoin trading services by early 2026.

Earlier today, BlackRock’s CEO, Larry Fink, acknowledged a change in his stance regarding Bitcoin, marking a departure from his previous skepticism. At the NYT DealBook Summit, he referred to Bitcoin as “an asset of fear,” typically acquired during periods of geopolitical unrest, financial instability, or currency devaluation. He cautioned that Bitcoin remains inherently volatile and influenced by leveraged participants but acknowledged its potential role as a form of portfolio insurance.

During the same summit, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong asserted that there is “no chance” of the Bitcoin price declining to zero.

At the time of this report, the Bitcoin price stands at $92,923.

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