Earlier on Monday, the price of Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $90,000 threshold, rising from $88,000 during Asian trading hours to exceed $90,000 in the afternoon trading sessions in Europe and the U.S.
However, this surge proved to be temporary, as the price declined to near $88,000 by the close of the afternoon session.
Recent trends indicate that Bitcoin has consistently gained momentum during Asian and European trading hours, only to see these advances dissipate as U.S. investors return to the market.
Data from CoinGlass reveals that Bitcoin futures open interest rose earlier in the day, approaching $60 billion across major trading platforms such as Binance, CME, and Bybit. This uptick indicates the influx of new leveraged positions into the market, rather than merely short-covering activities.
Although rising open interest accompanied by increasing prices does not inherently signal immediate trouble, it does heighten market risks. If momentum falters, a rapid unwinding of crowded long positions could lead to significant pullbacks.
Conversely, should the rally persist, leverage could enhance potential upward movement.
A sustained position above $90,000 could signify a departure from the pattern of sharp sell-offs that has characterized much of December. Holding above this critical level would suggest bullish momentum, while failure to do so may indicate a continuation of the market’s trend toward lower highs and swift pullbacks.
Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
Support for Bitcoin remains steadfast near the $84,000 mark, a level that has demonstrated resilience in recent weeks. Immediate resistance is identified at $91,400, with a subsequent key level at $94,000. Analysts indicate that further resistance can be expected beyond $94,000, particularly in the ranges of $98,000 and between $101,000 and $108,000.
Despite the recent rally, the U.S. macroeconomic environment continues to play a significant role in influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. An uncertain policy path from the Federal Reserve, exacerbated by delays in crucial inflation data due to a recent government shutdown, remains a focal point for market participants.
Gabriel Selby, head of research at CF Benchmark, indicated to DLNews that until the Federal Reserve acquires a series of uninterrupted inflation readings, market participants are unlikely to fully engage with risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Investors are also closely monitoring forthcoming economic indicators from the U.S. GDP figures for the third quarter are expected tomorrow, with projections suggesting an annualized growth rate of approximately 3.5%, slightly below the second quarter’s 3.8% pace. Additionally, consumer confidence data and weekly jobless claims will provide further insights into the labor market, potentially impacting risk appetite.
Anticipated ‘Santa Rally’
Historical seasonality may provide grounds for optimism. The S&P 500 has often experienced rallies during the final five trading days of December and the first two days of January—a phenomenon known as the “Santa Claus rally.” Given Bitcoin’s correlation with equities through ETFs, it is possible that a seasonal uplift in stock markets could have a positive spillover effect on the cryptocurrency market.
Historically, Bitcoin’s performance during the Santa period has been mixed. Strong returns of 33% and 46% were recorded in 2011 and 2016, respectively. Conversely, other years have seen declines. Overall, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of approximately 7.9% during this period since 2011.
By comparison, gold has demonstrated a more consistent performance, offering a cumulative return of 95% over the same timeframe, buoyed by recent record highs surpassing $4,400 an ounce which reflect strong market sentiment.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
Currently, sellers maintain control near the $89,000 level, approximately 30% below Bitcoin’s all-time high recorded in October. Last week, investors withdrew nearly $500 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs, indicating a cautious stance amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
The dynamic interplay between spot demand, futures leverage, and macroeconomic signals is likely to determine whether Bitcoin can maintain its trajectory towards the crucial $94,000 and $101,000 levels in the remaining weeks of 2025.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $88,368, with a 24-hour trading volume of $40 billion. The cryptocurrency’s market capitalization was approximately $1.76 trillion, with 19.97 million coins circulating and a maximum supply limit of 21 million.
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