As the fourth quarter of 2025 commences, Bitcoin has demonstrated a robust upward trajectory, increasing over 10% within the past week—from approximately $109,000 on September 27 to over $122,000 currently.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, posits that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs if the U.S. government shutdown persists.
Kendrick contends that Bitcoin’s historically positive correlation with U.S. Treasury term premiums suggests that the cryptocurrency may thrive during prolonged fiscal uncertainty.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $122,200, only slightly below its August all-time high of $124,480.
Bitcoin Positioned for a Rally
The prospect of an extended U.S. government shutdown introduces additional market uncertainty, typically impacting equities and fixed-income instruments.
Such conditions may serve as a catalyst for Bitcoin, reinforcing its position as a hedge against traditional market volatility.
Despite trading sideways in recent months, key liquidity indicators suggest that a breakout may be imminent. Global M2 growth, trends in stablecoin supply, and a rally in gold—historically correlated with Bitcoin with a 40-day lag—all point to a positive trajectory.
Analysts at JPMorgan also assess Bitcoin as undervalued compared to gold, estimating a theoretical upside to $165,000 if the “debasement trade”—investing in assets to shield against fiat currency risk—remains in effect.
With September closing approximately 5% higher at $114,000, historical patterns indicate a strong likelihood of significant gains in Q4, bolstered by increasing retail and institutional interest in Bitcoin ETFs and custody solutions.
Data reveal that in years such as 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, positive September closes have typically preceded fourth-quarter rallies averaging over 50%.
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