Recently, Bitcoin has surpassed the $121,000 mark, signaling renewed momentum as the fourth quarter of 2025 begins. This significant surge brings the cryptocurrency closer to its all-time high.

The recent rally follows a strong performance in September, where Bitcoin achieved a 5% increase, closing around $114,000—an outcome that contradicts its historical pattern of seasonal weakness.

This seasonal trend has led traders to refer to October as “Uptober.” Since 2015, October has yielded average gains of 21.8%, with November contributing an additional 10.8%.

If historical trends continue, Bitcoin may be positioned to exceed $150,000 by the end of the year.

Is an All-Time High Approaching?

On a year-to-date basis, Bitcoin has delivered a return of 27%, highlighting its resilience amid continued volatility within broader markets.

Currently, prices are less than 3% shy of their all-time high of over $124,000, suggesting that the conditions may soon be favorable for a breakout should the purchasing pressure persist.

Bitcoin’s Bullish Momentum

This recent surge can be attributed in part to the traditional economic metrics being impacted by the U.S. government shutdown, following Congress’s failure to pass a funding bill. With Wall Street under pressure and economic data releases temporarily halted, investors appear to be gravitating towards hard assets.

The price gains throughout the year build upon April’s halving event, which reduced Bitcoin’s new supply by half—a milestone that has historically preceded significant upward price movements. Furthermore, key liquidity indicators are currently signaling positive trends.

Growth in global M2 money supply, stablecoin issuance, and an upward trend in gold prices—an asset that Bitcoin has been known to follow—indicate increasing demand.

Analysts from Citigroup have recently projected a 12-month target for Bitcoin at $181,000, citing robust inflows that may reach $7.5 billion by December.

According to Citi analysts, “We are more positive on Bitcoin compared to Ether, as it captures a significant portion of incremental flows into crypto markets,” while noting that a more favorable regulatory environment could maintain this momentum into 2026.

Having already achieved record highs in 2025, the fourth quarter now presents a crucial period for Bitcoin.

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