In their recent mid-December “ChainCheck” report, analysts at VanEck provided a detailed assessment of the current landscape. While on-chain activity remains subdued, there are signs of improvement in liquidity conditions, and indications of speculative leverage resetting appear to provide a basis for cautious optimism among long-term investors.
VanEck’s analysis highlights a divergence in behavior among different investor demographics. Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) have proactively engaged in purchasing during the recent dip, accumulating 42,000 BTC—their largest acquisition since July—raising their total holdings to over one million BTC.
This is in stark contrast to the trend among Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) investors, who have decreased their exposure. This shift underscores a transition toward corporate accumulation over retail-driven speculation.
Furthermore, VanEck’s analysts observed that several DATs are exploring alternative financing strategies, such as issuing preferred shares instead of common stock, to facilitate their purchasing and operational needs. This behavior reflects a more strategic and long-term perspective among these entities.
Onchain data indicates a notable difference in activity between medium- and long-term holders. Tokens retained for one to five years show significant movement, suggesting trends in profit-taking or portfolio reallocation. In contrast, coins held for more than five years largely remain inactive. VanEck interprets these findings as evidence that shorter-term players are offloading assets, while the most seasoned cohorts continue to express confidence in Bitcoin’s future.
Challenges Faced by Bitcoin Miners
Bitcoin miners are currently navigating a particularly challenging environment, with network hash rates experiencing a 4% decline in December, according to VanEck. This reduction represents the sharpest decrease since April 2024, as high-capacity mining operations in regions such as Xinjiang have reduced output due to regulatory pressures. Additionally, breakeven electricity costs for major mining rigs have decreased, indicating tighter profit margins.
Historically, VanEck notes that falling hash rates can serve as a bullish contrarian indicator, as periods of declining network power have frequently foreshadowed positive returns over a 90- to 180-day horizon.
The VanEck team situates its analysis within the GEO (Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, Onchain Activity) framework, which aims to evaluate Bitcoin’s structural integrity beyond daily price variations. This perspective enables the firm to contextualize improving liquidity and DAT accumulation against softer on-chain metrics, including stagnating new user addresses and declining transaction fees.
Broader macroeconomic trends contribute further complexity to Bitcoin’s outlook. The U.S. dollar has weakened significantly, reaching near three-month lows, thereby bolstering precious metals; however, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets have faced continued pressure.
In a parallel development, the evolving financial ecosystem may provide new support for Bitcoin. Observers note the rise of “everything exchanges,” which seek to integrate stocks, cryptocurrencies, and prediction markets, utilizing AI-driven trading and settlement systems. Recently, Coinbase expanded its offerings to include stock trading, prediction markets, and futures, indicating a competitive landscape where various entities—ranging from traditional brokerages to crypto-native firms—aim for market share, potentially enhancing Bitcoin’s liquidity and utility over time, as per VanEck’s insights.
Managing Bitcoin Price Volatility
Despite these developments, price volatility remains a defining characteristic of Bitcoin. While the asset has doubled in value over the past two years and nearly tripled over three, the absence of extreme price peaks or significant downturns has moderated expectations. Future Bitcoin price movements may reflect a more measured approach, with mid-term investors likely to encounter smaller cyclical fluctuations rather than the dramatic volatility witnessed in previous cycles.
VanEck asserts that the broader market is currently in a correction phase. Short- to medium-term speculative activities are receding, long-term holders are maintaining their positions, and institutional accumulation is on the rise. Coupled with signs of miner capitulation, moderated volatility, and various macroeconomic factors, the firm characterizes the current environment as one of structural recalibration.
As the year 2025 draws to a close, VanEck suggests that Bitcoin could be entering a consolidation phase indicative of broader market maturation. This trajectory may result in significant positive price movements in the first quarter of the coming year.
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