Historically, Bitcoin’s price tends to reach its peak approximately 20 months post-halving, with the most recent halving occurring in April 2024. This suggests a possible cycle top around December of this year.
Such an outcome appears increasingly probable following Fed Chair Powell’s decision to reduce rates by 25 basis points today. This move provides a rationale for the approximately $7.4 trillion currently allocated in money market funds to transition into hard assets like Bitcoin. This shift is facilitated by the greater accessibility of Bitcoin exposure through instruments such as spot Bitcoin ETFs and Bitcoin treasury companies.
Furthermore, Chair Powell indicated that additional rate cuts could occur before the year concludes. Such reductions would further diminish returns on money market funds, potentially driving investors toward hard assets like Bitcoin and gold, as well as more speculative options like technology and AI-related stocks.
This scenario may set the stage for a final leg of a “melt-up,” reminiscent of the late stages of the tech stock boom at the turn of the millennium.
In 1998, the Fed slashed rates by 75 basis points, igniting the dot-com bubble.
Now the Fed is preparing to cut rates by at least 75 basis points over the next few months, which may have similar implications for the AI bubble.
Learn more:https://t.co/F9WZFQcABp$SPY $QQQ pic.twitter.com/r5yMoeycMX
— Jesse Colombo (@TheBubbleBubble) September 16, 2025
In alignment with analysts such as Henrik Zeberg and David Hunter, it is posited that the groundwork is being laid for a significant parabolic phase of a bullish run that commenced in late 2022.
As I noted in 2022, when sentiment was predominantly bearish, the BlowOffTop was set to begin.
WE ARE CURRENTLY WITNESSING ITS DEVELOPMENT!
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 17, 2025
Using a conventional financial index as a comparative measure, Zeberg anticipates that the S&P 500 could surpass 7,000 before the end of the year, while Hunter suggests a rise to 8,000 or higher in the same timeframe.
@DaveHcontrarian predicted the S&P would reach 6,000 by the end of 2022, contrasting sharply with other analysts’ forecasts of 2,000.
Now, he has revised his target to 8,000, noting further potential upside before the economy ultimately slows later this year. pic.twitter.com/oclBwqrh0L
— Anthony (@AnthonyFatseas) July 2, 2025
Moreover, Macro Strategist Octavio (Tavi) Costa suggests that the US dollar may be breaking down from a 14-year support level, indicating a potential weakening of the dollar in the upcoming months, which would further bolster the bullish case for hard and risk assets.
This move has significant implications.
The DXY index appears to be breaking down from a 14-year support level.
If confirmed, it could indicate the onset of a sustained decline in the US dollar.
Don’t underestimate the importance of major technical shifts… pic.twitter.com/aFScjjXS8b— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) September 16, 2025
What Lies Ahead in 2026?
Analysts Zeberg and Hunter project that by early next year, a substantial market downturn may occur, reminiscent of the financial market collapse in October 1929, which heralded the Great Depression.
Zeberg attributes this potential downturn to the slowing real economy, which is partly evidenced by the increasing number of homes on the market.
Remember, there are analysts asserting we are in an early cycle…?
We are heading straight toward the most severe recession since the 1930s.
The BlowOffTop is still unfolding; however, its conclusion is in sight! https://t.co/uZkTnYk9WT
— Henrik Zeberg (@HenrikZeberg) September 17, 2025
Hunter posits that the current phase may signify the end of a 50-year debt-driven cycle, culminating in a debt unwinding unlike anything observed in recent history, as indicated in his discussions on Coin Stories.
Further indicators, such as rising loan payment delinquencies, suggest that the real economy is faltering, which will likely impact the financial landscape.
The number of student loans delinquent by 90+ days has surged to unprecedented levels. https://t.co/sk8T9W07fb pic.twitter.com/BjFe6xPH9Q
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) September 5, 2025
Probability of a Bitcoin Downturn
Even if the global macroeconomic landscape does not lead to a recession, historical trends suggest Bitcoin’s price may face a downside in 2026.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price decreased from nearly $69,000 at the end of 2021 to approximately $15,500 by the close of 2022, and from around $20,000 at the end of 2017 to just over $3,000 by the end of 2018.
In both scenarios, Bitcoin’s price either approached or fell below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), represented by the light blue line in the accompanying charts.
Presently, the 200-week SMA for Bitcoin is approximately $52,000. Should Bitcoin’s price rise parabolically in the coming months, it could reach as high as $65,000 before potentially decreasing to that level or lower in 2026.
In the event of a market downturn as forecasted by Zeberg and Hunter, Bitcoin’s price may drop substantially below that threshold.
In conclusion, while predicting the future is inherently uncertain, it is prudent to acknowledge historical patterns, which, although not exact, often exhibit similar characteristics.
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