In a strategic move with the potential to influence corporate Bitcoin adoption, MSCI is poised to determine whether to exclude companies holding substantial Bitcoin reserves from its global benchmarks. The decision, set to be announced by January 15, has the potential to impact billions in forced selling and establish precedents for Wall Street’s perception of Bitcoin as a viable treasury asset.
MSCI Inc., a publicly traded entity based in New York, holds a market capitalization of $43.76 billion and a stock price of $565.68 as of January 2. The firm is a prominent player in the investment landscape, curating over 246,000 equity indices daily, which represent more than $18.3 trillion in assets under management. These indices are critical for investors seeking exposure to specific market segments.
Differentiating itself from NASDAQ, which acts both as a stock exchange and a composite index, MSCI is primarily focused on the creation of indices. The S&P 500, managed by S&P Dow Jones Indices, similarly functions as an index while targeting the 500 largest U.S. companies by market capitalization. MSCI’s various offerings, including the MSCI World Index that encompasses developed markets, provide extensive global and thematic coverage, significantly influencing trillions in investment activity.
The current issue emerged on October 10, 2025, when MSCI published a consultation proposal to exclude companies with 50% or more of their assets in digital assets, such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, from its Global Investable Market Indexes. The rationale put forth was that these firms operate more as funds than as traditional businesses. The proposal identified 39 companies, including significant Bitcoin holders like Strategy and Metaplanet. This announcement led to an immediate market reaction, with Bitcoin experiencing a sharp intraday decline of approximately $12,000, signaling the onset of a broader price correction.
Further attention was drawn to the matter in late November 2025, when analysts at JPMorgan emphasized the risks in a report estimating potential outflows of $2.8 billion from Strategy alone, and up to $8.8 billion if other index providers followed suit. These forecasts may have exacerbated selling pressure on affected stocks and contributed to Bitcoin’s ongoing downturn amid a broader market decline. Estimates of total forced selling, if the proposal is enacted, range from $10 billion to $15 billion over a year, as per analysis from Bitcoin for Corporations (BFC).
The consultation period, which allowed for stakeholder feedback, concluded on December 31, 2025. In response, the BFC—an organization dedicated to accelerating corporate Bitcoin adoption—mobilized swiftly by launching a website to critique the proposal’s shortcomings, including a technical appendix outlining its potential market impacts. BFC also drafted an opposition letter that garnered over 1,500 signatures within two weeks, delivered to MSCI on December 30. Notably, eight of the 39 companies listed are BFC members.
Following initial outreach, BFC conducted a call with MSCI’s head of research and leadership. George Mekhail, BFC’s executive director, remarked, “We had a very constructive conversation. It appears that MSCI is still in a receptive and learning mode. Much of the issue seems to stem from a lack of understanding of Bitcoin and the operational significance of these Bitcoin treasury companies.”
Mekhail observed that the proposal seemed to be motivated by legitimate analytical concerns rather than any negative intent, triggered instead by Metaplanet’s recent preferred share issuance rather than Strategy’s larger holdings. A crucial oversight noted was MSCI’s failure to distinguish between Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which has generated a temporary alliance between Bitcoin advocates and the broader crypto sector. This scenario underscores the ongoing educational gap between the Bitcoin industry and Wall Street’s institutions.
MSCI is expected to announce its decision on January 15, 2026. Should the proposal be approved, the exclusions would come into effect on February 1. Mekhail outlined three potential scenarios: the implementation of the proposal (worst case, which would force sales), a delay for further review (most likely), or a complete withdrawal (best case). Current Polymarket bettors assign a 77% probability to Strategy’s delisting from MSCI by March 31.
The majority of the financial impact would be directed at Strategy, which possesses the bulk of the affected Bitcoin treasuries. Founder Michael Saylor’s firm has engaged MSCI directly, submitting its own letter and engaging in behind-the-scenes negotiations. Additional opposition has stemmed from letters issued by Strive Asset Management and investor Bill Miller.
The industry response has been strong and conspicuous, with no major groups publicly endorsing the proposal. This imbalance emphasizes the organized and motivated constituency of Bitcoin advocates in contrast to more dispersed critics, reminiscent of recent political dynamics, such as those observed in the 2024 U.S. elections.
A withdrawal of the proposal would likely bolster corporate Bitcoin strategies, while its implementation could deter companies from holding Bitcoin in treasury. As Mekhail articulated, “The most optimistic outcome is that MSCI heeds this feedback and withdraws the proposal.” The impending decision will serve as a litmus test for Wall Street’s adaptability to Bitcoin’s role within corporate balance sheets.
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