In this guest feature, Woo takes a tongue-in-cheek take a look at bitcoin’s historic market efficiency, in the end proposing a bitcoin-specific macroscopic buying and selling sample he believes can predict the worth.
Here at Woobull Labs, we take knowledge pushed evaluation very critically. Today, I am happy to current the fruits of 4 years of knowledge gathering and evaluation on bitcoin dealer psychology.
The sketch above depicts the fundamental rig we used for our epic analysis.
The dataset contains readings over 4 years at 10 minute intervals (210,240 readings per topic). In whole, we collected the psychological brainwave sample of 100,000 of bitcoin merchants – a staggering 210,240,000,000 knowledge factors – as they tapped away on their keyboards.
Yes, very epic.
After filtering the brainwaves for solely emotion signatures, we discovered a sample emerged. There was a very predictable repeating fractal after every bitcoin ‘mooning’ (or peak).
Below is the emotional brainwave superposition of 100,000 merchants.
Our scientists have privately coined this brainwave sample “Soobmee” (Sudden Onset Of Bitcoin Mooning Exuberance).
Exhibits A-D have been the strongest imprints we discovered within the dataset.
After many months of sign evaluation, we have been ready to map this sample to outline a brand new and essential predictive buying and selling sample.
Unlike the tried-and-tested dealer patterns such because the double high, head and shoulders, cup and deal with, and never to point out essentially the most revered in crypto-land… the wedge sample… in the present day we unveil to the world an all new bitcoin-specific macroscopic buying and selling sample… the three cats and a moon sample.
The lengthy vary bitcoin worth chart beneath exhibits this fractal sample at work:
A and B exhibits the sample taking part in out in a bear pattern, whereas C and D exhibits it taking part in out in a bull market.
They could look completely different, however they’re truly the identical, skewed onto a bullish or bearish pattern line. The signalling to look ahead to is one cat and two kittens that comply with on from a pump and dump.
Here’s the sample match beneath. We discovered that focusing your consideration and listening for the meows of distressed kittens helps.
We should reiterate the time to use this sample is after a bitcoin bubble has been ample to kick in irrational dealer exuberance, adopted by a affirmation sign of a steep worth correction.
Since the reader doesn’t have the benefit of our mind signaling equipment, we’ve got a sketch beneath to assist discover you discover this telltale signature within the crypto-trading room.
Finally, the sharp readers right here could have seen we do in truth have a brand new three cats and a moon sign affirmation. Our analysis workforce will go away you with the cheat sheet beneath:
This piece isn’t meant to present, and shouldn’t be taken as, funding recommendation.
Images by way of Willy Woo for CoinDesk
Disclaimer: The views expressed on this article are these of the creator and don’t essentially symbolize the views of, and shouldn’t be attributed to, CoinDesk.