The research division of Galaxy Digital has revised its estimate regarding the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026, reducing it to 50%, down from a previous estimate of 60% made just three weeks prior. This adjustment is attributed to a rapidly diminishing Senate calendar and the absence of a merged text, a scheduled vote, or a public commitment from Senate leadership.
This downgrade, articulated by Galaxy researcher Alex Thorn, highlights calendar constraints rather than substantive issues with the bill itself. The CLARITY Act, formally known as the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, successfully navigated the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan 15-9 vote on May 14 and has since remained inactive on the Senate Legislative Calendar as item No. 423, with no date for discussion established and no motion to proceed scheduled.
The CLARITY Act represents Congress’s most significant endeavor to date in creating a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. It delineates regulatory authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, establishes criteria for classifying a digital asset as either a commodity or a security, and incorporates the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which aims to protect certain blockchain developers and node operators.
The bill’s bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee is particularly noteworthy, especially in a political climate where crypto legislation frequently falters along party lines.
Although a version of market structure legislation passed in the House in 2024, the Senate has faced greater challenges. Both the Banking and Agriculture committees have jurisdiction over the matter, and the reconciliation of their respective texts is still in progress, with no unified legislative text released to the public.
The Scheduling Dilemma Concerning the CLARITY Act
For a bill that requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, time is of the essence. The Senate is slated to start its August recess at the end of July. Prior to that, a merged text from the Banking and Agriculture committees must be finalized, a motion to proceed must be filed, floor debates must occur, and an amendment process must run its course.
Following these steps, the House would then need to consider whatever version the Senate produces.
Thorn indicated that Senate Majority Leader John Thune must announce floor time no later than early July for a July vote to be feasible.
Failure to secure such a scheduling announcement by this timeline would push discussions to September, a period complicated by midterm election dynamics that often render the scheduling of controversial votes more challenging.
Competition for Senate floor time has grown more intense. The expiration of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act on June 12, combined with a pending Grassley-Cotton-Warner product, has further constrained available time slots.
Additionally, the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act, a critical annual defense bill, also remains unfinished.
On June 24, President Trump cancelled the scheduled signing of a bipartisan housing bill that had already received overwhelming support in both chambers. He conditioned his signature on the passage of the SAVE Act, a proof-of-citizenship elections bill, which Thune has indicated lacks sufficient votes to advance. This condition introduces another layer of contention into an already congested legislative agenda.
While the calendar remains the primary concern, substantive issues surrounding the bill have yet to be fully addressed. The ethics question persists as a critical outstanding issue: a conflict-of-interest amendment proposed by Senator Van Hollen was defeated in committee, and Senators Ruben Gallego and Cory Booker continue to insist on enforceable ethics standards as a prerequisite for their support.
Thorn anticipated at least two Republican dissenting votes—Josh Hawley and Rand Paul—which indicates that support from Democratic senators is imperative. Additionally, law enforcement-aligned senators are pressing for modifications to the developer-protection provisions within the BRCA.
Galaxy’s analysis identified several conditions that could potentially improve the odds of passage: a public agreement on a combined text from the Banking and Agriculture committees, a credible resolution regarding ethics or BRCA disputes that firmly secures Democratic support, and a commitment from leadership to allocate floor time in July. A scheduling announcement within the next two weeks would likely enhance the likelihood of passage back towards 60% or higher; conversely, continued inaction into mid-July would reduce those odds.
As it stands, the CLARITY Act remains in a nebulous position at No. 423 on the Senate calendar—acknowledged yet unscheduled, while the Senate continues to address other legislative priorities.
Thank you for visiting our site. You can get the latest Information and Editorials on our site regarding bitcoins.
