Geoff Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, asserted on Friday that the cryptocurrency market has reached its cycle low. With Bitcoin’s recent dip to approximately $59,000 representing a 53% drawdown from its all-time high of $126,000 in October, Kendrick posits this decline signifies the bottom of the latest downturn.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring,” Kendrick stated in a Friday report, adding, “I believe we have now witnessed the low in crypto asset prices for this cycle.”
At the time of Kendrick’s publication, Bitcoin had rebounded to around $64,000, reflecting a gain of approximately 5% over the previous week. The bank retains a price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year, a projection initially articulated in February.
SpaceX IPO Drains Crypto Liquidity — Then Frees It
One of the primary catalysts cited by Kendrick was the historic Nasdaq debut of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which priced its $75 billion IPO at $135 per share under the ticker SPCX on June 12.
Shares opened significantly above their IPO price, achieving a gain of approximately 20% on the first day. Kendrick contended that a substantial portion of recent Bitcoin ETF outflows—exceeding $5.72 billion since the second week of May—was driven by investors liquidating crypto positions to secure allocations in SpaceX. With the IPO now active, this selling pressure may subside, he noted.
The interconnection between crypto and SpaceX demand was also evident, as perpetual contracts for SpaceX (SPCX) amassed over $240 million in open interest and $220 million in 24-hour trading volume prior to the debut, ranking as the eighth-largest asset on the platform.
Iran as a Wildcard
The second catalyst pertains to geopolitics. A potential peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, scheduled for discussion ahead of next week’s G7 summit, could alleviate pressure on global oil supplies that have remained constrained since recent Middle Eastern hostilities began.
A decrease in oil prices would subsequently mitigate elevated U.S. Treasury yields, which have acted as a drag on risk assets such as cryptocurrency by rendering risk-free government debt more appealing.
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped approximately 1.5% on Friday, settling in the range of $85–$86 per barrel. Nonetheless, the narrative surrounding the potential peace deal remained tenuous.
President Trump indicated Thursday that a breakthrough might occur over the weekend, but later posted on Truth Social that the publicly announced deal did not reflect the agreements made, cautioning Iranian officials to “get their act together,” thereby adding uncertainty to the macroeconomic outlook.
Three Bitcoin Price Signals to Monitor
Kendrick delineated three confirmation signals that would substantiate his assertion. Firstly, he is monitoring for Strategy to announce an additional Bitcoin purchase on Monday, as CEO Michael Saylor’s buying history has consistently served as a reliable indicator of institutional demand.
Secondly, he anticipates that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs will return to net-positive daily inflows on Friday.
Lastly, he aims to observe sustained declines in global oil prices as the diplomatic situation with Iran evolves.
If all three conditions materialize, Kendrick’s thesis of a crypto spring will gain substantial validation, indicating that institutional and macroeconomic forces are aligning to potentially propel Bitcoin towards the bank’s $100,000 year-end target.
Thank you for visiting our site. You can get the latest Information and Editorials on our site regarding bitcoins.
