Recent on-chain and derivatives data for Bitcoin suggest a potentially positive outlook, as highlighted by VanEck. The firm has pointed out noteworthy trends, including negative funding rates and a declining hash rate, coupled with reduced volatility and cautious market positioning.
According to their latest report, the realized volatility has decreased from approximately 56% to 41%, coinciding with a de-escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran. The 7-day average funding rate has also dropped to about -1.8%, marking its lowest point since 2023 and positioning it in the 10th percentile of measurements since late 2020.
Historically, Bitcoin has demonstrated an average 30-day return of 11.5% during periods of negative funding, compared to a mere 4.5% over all periods, with a notable 77% likelihood of positive performance. When the annualized funding rate falls below -5%, subsequent 30-day returns have averaged 19.4%, with 180-day returns reaching 70%. This trend positions negative funding as a recurring contrarian buy signal. VanEck also notes that 19 of the top 50 180-day return windows since 2020 have commenced on days characterized by negative funding, despite such periods making up only 13.6% of the total sample.
Decline in Bitcoin Hash Rate
From a mining perspective, the 30-day moving average hash rate has dipped to the 16th percentile over 30 days and the 9th percentile over 90 days, with mining difficulty falling to the 5th and 6th percentiles on those timeframes.
Since December 2025, three episodes of sustained hash rate declines have been observed, forming the densest cluster since the mining ban in China in 2021, with the most recent drawdown of approximately 6.7% concluding on April 15, 2026. Analysis of seven historical drawdowns reveals that Bitcoin prices increased 90 days later on six occasions, yielding a median gain of 37.7%, and a median gain of 63.1% over 180 days.
Current derivatives and on-chain activity suggest a more cautious sentiment rather than outright capitulation. Put premiums in relation to spot volume are more than six times higher than those recorded in April 2024, while active supply over the previous 180 days has decreased to 28.4%, indicating greater dormancy among holders.
Notably, long-tenured holders, specifically those holding Bitcoin for 7-10 years and beyond 10 years, have increased their spent volume, reaching the 85th and 90th percentiles of the past four years. However, VanEck emphasizes that these movements do not necessarily indicate wholesale selling.
In conclusion, the firm asserts that the combination of negative funding and hash rate strain underpins a strengthened bullish environment for Bitcoin. The analysts state, “Both mining rate drawdowns and negative funding rates have been associated with strong forward BTC returns. As such, we have become increasingly bullish on Bitcoin.”
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